Return home, recovery pathway difficult to measure

Today (May 6), we mark three months of the Türkiye and Syrian earthquake, and it is reported that about 20 percent[i] of those affected by the earthquake who migrated to the cities they used as refuge have returned. For instance, only in Hatay province, Türkiye, 92,000 out of 565,000 who have taken refuge in areas outside Hatay have returned.[ii] The number is expected to rise since more people are having trouble paying rent due to increased house rent prices. Turkish Housing Sector Group reported that house rents in Türkiye increased by 16 percent on average following the earthquakes.[iii] On the other hand, authorities believe 65-70% of families in tents are from homes that are low or have minor damage[iv], so there is a possibility they might be returning to their homes. So the number of returnees will be around 1 million since about 1.8 million people are currently in tents.[v]

Influencing factors on the scale of return and its challenges

In every affected people, there is always the desire to return home. There are external factors that can influence their decision.  The most influential is their confidence due to the aftershocks diminishing. When they overcome the trauma, they will think about their assets and livelihood back home. Their children need to be back in the classroom. If those living in the refuge share this idea, one family can be a pioneer and create a bandwagon effect[vi]. Then there will be a massive home returning.

But some challenges can impede the smoothness of this process. Unprepared utilities in their home areas will put them in tents or refuges longer. Water can be an issue, such as debit and the quality due to the pipe needing repair. Repairing of pipes needs to wait until rubble removal can be completed. Electricity also needs to be well functioned as they need to run their appliances moreover the coming summer they need for the refrigerator. They might also consider repairing their houses, but more than hardware vendors and builders will be required in the current market.

Preparing massive return

It is essential to understand the uniqueness of recovery pathways. People must be able to choose which recovery process they should follow. But they can be assisted by preparing the market. As inflation of construction material and labor costs is inevitable, strengthening the local market can reduce the impact of inflation. If cement, steel rebar, and other materials can be available with sufficient amounts and stable prices during recovery, the risk of interruption of the recovery process can be minimized. All of these need government policy and local economic development strategy. It is always challenging to link the housing recovery with sustainable economic growth if extensive umbrella to maintain the market is unavailable.

Other market actors are the builders. As this disaster could be the biggest in decades, skilled or qualified builders are less than needed. Therefore adding new builders or even training the homeowners to repair their houses will be crucial. There should be messaging and training in their home areas to ensure they can repair their houses properly. Otherwise, people just put plaster and paint, such as cosmetics but overlook to ensure that weakened parts need to be repaired.

Lastly, the decision to return home or stay in the tents or refuge solely depends on each household. It cannot be predicted when or how big, but it can be anticipated. Government and humanitarian agencies have an essential role in anticipating the return and preparing the ecosystem so that self-recovery can naturally happen and robust house can be achieved.

Gaziantep May 6, 2023. 

Arwin Soelaksono

Photo: Twitter @StepHaiselden[vii]

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[i] Support to Life. Emergency Situation Report 26 April 2023

[ii] OCHA. 2023 Earthquakes Situation Report No. 11 As of 23 March 2023

[iii] Support to Life. Emergency Situation Report 26 April 2023

[iv] Temporary Settlement Support Sector Turkey EQ Response Sector Briefing 27 April 2023

[v] Shelter Sector Türkiye. Information brief Shelter Sector No. 1 – 28 April 2023

[vi] The tendency for people to adopt certain behaviors, styles, or attitudes simply because others are doing so.

[vii] https://twitter.com/StepHaiselden